UKGC Reports Illegal Gambling Market Shows Fluctuations

UKGC Reports Illegal Gambling Market Shows Fluctuations

The Gambling Commission has released its second detailed study into the state of the illegal online gambling market in Great Britain, shedding light on patterns of consumer engagement and the difficulties of measuring activity in a hidden and constantly shifting sector. The publication follows the recent launch of the Commission's Illegal Gambling Hub, which was introduced last month as a resource to centralize knowledge and analysis on unlicensed operators.

The report's central finding is that there is no sustained increase in consumer interaction with unlicensed websites. While activity appeared to rise during the latter half of 2024, that growth did not continue. By the end of the study period, engagement had dropped back to levels similar to those recorded at the outset. The regulator concluded that these fluctuations reflected temporary changes rather than a structural rise in participation.

Tim Livesley, who leads the Commission's data innovation hub, noted that claims of constant expansion in this market are not supported by the evidence collected so far. He stressed, however, that the absence of clear growth should not be mistaken for the absence of risk. The Commission maintains that illegal operators undermine consumer protection and regulatory oversight; disruption of their activities remains a priority.

The study examined data gathered over a fifteen-month period, focusing on how consumers accessed unlicensed gambling sites. Traffic was tracked from search engines and affiliate marketing links, encompassing a mix of traditional products, such as betting and casino games, alongside newer formats, including crypto-based platforms.

One of the main observations was the temporary surge in visits between summer and winter 2024, followed by a decline that erased the earlier rise. The regulator acknowledged that the reasons behind such fluctuations remain unclear. Whether they were seasonal, linked to particular events, or shaped by enforcement activity is an area for further analysis.

Livesley explained that illegal websites do not remain stable for long. Enforcement actions remove some operators, while others emerge to replace them, creating a constant turnover. This volatility complicates efforts to build historical trends, as the most frequently visited sites one month may no longer be active a few months later.

The Commission has been clear that studying an underground market presents inherent challenges. VPN use obscures the geographic origin of some traffic, and certain types of unlicensed activity, such as mobile applications, are not fully captured in the current methodology. The regulator, therefore, cautioned that its findings should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

To improve accuracy, the Commission intends to expand the scope of data collection, extend the review periods, and refine methods for estimating web traffic. Longer-term monitoring may help identify whether observed fluctuations are part of broader patterns or short-lived shifts.

Livesley emphasized that transparency regarding the data's limitations is crucial. He acknowledged that illegal gambling, by its nature, leaves few reliable markers. The Commission's aim, he said, is to work with the best evidence available, while openly discussing margins of error and assumptions.

The regulator has indicated that further updates on its data-driven work will be published later this year. These studies will examine how disruption measures affect consumer behavior and what can be inferred about spending levels in the unlicensed sector. A separate publication is planned to outline the results of enforcement efforts, detailing how targeted interventions have altered the market.

Collaboration with licensed operators is also on the agenda. The Commission sees value in comparing its estimates with industry-held information, which could help refine the measurement of illegal activity and improve the reliability of its findings.

Although the latest data does not support the narrative of a steadily expanding illegal gambling sector, the Commission maintains that vigilance is essential. Unlicensed operators continue to pose risks to consumers and to the integrity of the regulated market. By strengthening its use of data and broadening cooperation with industry stakeholders, the regulator aims to understand better and counteract the challenges posed by the unlicensed sector.

The picture that emerges from the report is not one of unchecked growth but of a market in flux, with activity rising and falling in ways that remain difficult to interpret. The task for the Commission in the coming months will be to build a clearer understanding of these shifts, while ensuring that enforcement actions continue to disrupt illegal operators and maintain the integrity of the regulated landscape.