Understanding Bonus Wagering Requirements Full Guide

First, we need to determine the amount of money we need to wager to complete the bonus. Since the bonus has a x30 wagering requirement on the deposit only, we need to wager 30 times the deposit amount, which is 100 euros. So the total amount we need to wager is 30 x 100 = 3000 euros.

Next, we need to calculate the expected value of the slot game, which is the amount of money we can expect to win or lose on average per bet. Since the slot game has a 95.17% return to player, the expected value of each bet is 0.9517 euros for every 1 euro wagered. Therefore, the expected value of a 1 euro bet is -0.0483 euros (1 – 0.9517 = -0.0483).

To calculate the expected value of 3000 euros in bets, we can multiply the expected value of each bet by the number of bets: -0.0483 x 3000 = -144.90 euros.

This means that, on average, we can expect to lose 144.90 euros when wagering 3000 euros on the slot game. However, this does not tell us the probability of completing the bonus.

To calculate the probability of completing the bonus, we need to use a statistical distribution called the binomial distribution, which can tell us the probability of achieving a certain number of successful outcomes (in this case, winning bets) out of a total number of trials (in this case, 3000 bets).

The formula for the binomial distribution is:

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 – p)^(n-k)

Where:

P(X = k) is the probability of k successful outcomes n is the total number of trials (in this case, 3000 bets) k is the number of successful outcomes we want to achieve (in this case, 3000 – 144.90 = 2855.10 winning bets) p is the probability of a successful outcome (in this case, 0.9517) Using this formula, we can calculate the probability of achieving 2855.10 winning bets out of 3000 bets:

P(X = 2855.10) = (3000 choose 2855.10) * 0.9517^2855.10 * 0.0483^144.90

This calculation results in a probability of approximately 3.31%.

Therefore, the chance of completing a 100 euro casino deposit bonus with x30 wagering requirements (deposit only) if you play a slot game with 95.17% return to player is approximately 3.31%.