MGM Awaits Dubai Ruling on Casino License

Dubai’s $2.5 billion MGM resort project remains in limbo as the emirate’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, has yet to approve casino operations at the beachfront property. Despite the uncertainty, MGM Resorts International CEO Bill Hornbuckle remains optimistic about the long-term prospects.

Eight years after MGM and UAE developer Wasl announced their partnership to build a 10.5-hectare integrated resort on Jumeirah Beach, the project—branded “the Island”—is advancing without clarity on whether gaming will be part of its offering. The development is set to feature three major hotel brands, Bellagio, MGM, and Aria, marking the Las Vegas operator’s debut in the Middle East. Originally envisioned as a luxury hospitality and entertainment complex, the project has since been repositioned as a potential gaming venue, amid growing speculation about the UAE’s emerging casino market.

• Casino approval pending: Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed has not yet authorized gaming at MGM’s $2.5 billion Jumeirah resort.

• Market potential: Analysts estimate the UAE gaming sector could generate $5–8 billion annually, rivaling Singapore.

• Wynn’s head start: Wynn Al Marjan in Ras Al Khaimah holds the UAE’s first casino license, with an exclusive 15-year term.

Market Potential

Analysts estimate the UAE’s gaming sector could generate between $5 billion and $8 billion annually, placing it in competition with established hubs such as Singapore. Demand is driven by a wealthy expatriate population—making up as much as 90 percent of the UAE’s residents—and a steady inflow of high-spending visitors from India, China, and across the Middle East. Dubai’s appeal as a luxury destination, coupled with tax advantages for foreigners, has already attracted billionaires and high-net-worth individuals. Hornbuckle has pointed to Dubai International Airport’s global reach, calling it “one of the largest airports, and I think it will be the biggest in the world,” as a key factor in future visitation.

So far, only Wynn Resorts has secured a gaming license in the UAE, for its $5.1 billion Wynn Al Marjan project in Ras Al Khaimah. The resort, due to open in early 2027, has been granted an exclusive, renewable 15-year casino license, positioning it as the country’s first legal gaming destination. While Wynn enjoys a head start, industry sources suggest it is “unlikely” the operator will remain the only license holder. Hornbuckle has previously predicted that three to four casinos could eventually open across the Emirates. MGM’s Island project is scheduled to launch in late 2028, with or without gaming.

We’re waiting for [Sheikh Mohammed] to say, ‘Go ahead.’ … If [the Island] gets a casino, and I believe it will over time, it’s a massive opportunity.

Regulatory Landscape

The UAE established the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) in 2023 to oversee the sector, a move widely seen as preparation for legalized casino operations. The authority’s leadership includes figures with close ties to MGM: Chairman Jim Murren is the company’s former chairman and CEO, while board member William Grounds previously served on MGM’s board.

That alignment could strengthen MGM’s prospects, though final approval rests with Dubai’s ruler. Hornbuckle recently acknowledged frustration with the pace of decision-making, saying, “We’re waiting for [Sheikh Mohammed] to say, ‘Go ahead.’ … I don’t know when we’ll hear, but I do believe this: If [the Island] gets a casino, and I believe it will over time, it’s a massive opportunity.” The outcome of Dubai’s deliberations carries implications not only for MGM but for the shape of the region’s tourism and entertainment economy. With Wynn set to test the market in Ras Al Khaimah, attention now turns to whether Dubai—long a symbol of the UAE’s global ambitions—will follow suit and authorize casino gaming at its flagship resort projects.