Macau’s IGaming Revenue Board Forecasts Strong Q3 and Q4

Macau’s gaming sector is demonstrating steady recovery, with investment banks raising revenue forecasts for July and projecting robust performance throughout the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Strong visitor arrivals, new premium hotel openings, and upcoming entertainment events are key factors underpinning this optimistic outlook.

According to recent data highlighted by Macquarie, average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the week ending 13 July stood at MOP 696 million. While this figure reflected a 3% decline from the previous week, it represented a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. The mid-month dip was mainly linked to weaker VIP win rates and the conclusion of a major concert series by singer Jacky Cheung, which had previously boosted foot traffic and spending.

 

Metric	Value	Year-on-Year Change	Notes
July Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) Forecast	MOP 21 billion	+13%	Revised upward by Citigroup
Average Daily GGR (Week Ending 13 July)	MOP 696 million	+10%	Data cited by Macquarie
Full-Year GGR Forecast	MOP 235.7 billion	+4%	Raised by Macquarie
Mass Market GGR Growth	Up to +3%	Positive	Reported by Citigroup
Mid-July Daily Revenue Dip	-5%	Negative	Temporary pullback noted by Citigroup

 

In light of these developments, Macquarie raised its full-year GGR forecast by 5% to MOP 235.7 billion, signaling an expected 4% year-on-year growth. The bank cited the resilience of Macau’s gaming market and highlighted the role of new premium hotel launches and scheduled entertainment events in maintaining momentum through the second half of the year.

Citigroup similarly revised its July GGR estimate upward, from MOP 20 billion to MOP 21 billion. This projection implies a 13% increase year-on-year and approximately 86% of the revenue levels recorded in July 2019, prior to the pandemic. Citigroup noted that VIP gaming volumes remained stable compared to June, while mass market gaming revenue increased by up to 3%. Although mid-July saw a temporary 5% pullback in daily revenue, the figures stayed above the 2023 monthly average.

Analysts at Citigroup also pointed to upcoming concerts by prominent artists Aaron Kwok and Sandy Lam, anticipating these events will further boost visitor numbers and gaming revenue in the latter half of July and beyond. HSBC provided a slightly broader forecast range for July’s GGR, estimating it could reach between MOP 20.8 billion and MOP 22 billion, assuming daily averages fluctuate between MOP 650 million and MOP 720 million.

 

Despite a brief mid-month slowdown, Macau’s gaming sector is showing strong resilience, with new premium hotel openings and high-profile entertainment events set to drive sustained revenue growth through the second half of 2025.

 

The Future

The combination of stable VIP volumes, growth in mass market revenue, and fresh entertainment offerings underscores Macau’s ongoing recovery in the gaming sector. New premium hotels are expected to attract higher-spending visitors, while events provide additional incentives for tourists, supporting footfall and spending.

Overall, the upward revisions to revenue forecasts by multiple investment banks reflect growing confidence in Macau’s gaming market. Despite short-term fluctuations, the sector appears well positioned for steady growth in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, reinforcing Macau’s status as a leading global gaming destination.