Gaming Industry Faces Slowdown in 2025

The American Gaming Association (AGA) has released its latest AGA Gaming CEO Outlook, and the message is clear: the gaming industry’s rapid growth may be losing steam. The report, which collects input from top executives in the gaming sector twice a year, indicates that the explosive expansion of the last few years will likely give way to a more tempered period in 2025.

A Softer Outlook for 2025

The report’s Future Conditions Index, a key indicator of gaming CEOs’ expectations, shows a marked decline in optimism. The number of executives expecting slower growth in the next three to six months now outnumbers those predicting continued expansion. This shift is notable given that only six months ago, many CEOs were still bullish on the industry's near-term prospects.

“The Future Conditions Index reflects gaming CEO growth expectations that have softened relative to six months ago – with the share of executives expecting decelerating growth outweighing those expecting accelerating growth,” the report states. It also points to a U.S. economy that, while strong in recent quarters, is forecast to cool down soon.

One of the most striking findings is the increase in negative sentiment among gaming CEOs. In the Fall 2024 report, the percentage of executives expecting a downturn in the coming months was 28 points higher than those with a positive outlook. This represents a dramatic rise from the Spring 2024 report, where the gap between negative and positive outlooks was just four points.

David Foreman, AGA’s Vice President of Research, explained that this shift comes after several years of extraordinary growth in gaming. According to Foreman, many executives believe that the industry’s rapid expansion has run its course, and they now expect a period of stabilization or even contraction.

“After years of very strong consumer gaming spending growth, expectations around customer activity over the next three to six months have cooled considerably,” Foreman noted. Despite the looming challenges, Foreman emphasized that gaming businesses remain financially sound, with strong balance sheets and improved access to credit compared to the previous two years.

Economic Concerns at the Forefront

The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy is a major source of concern for gaming executives. The AGA report reveals that apprehension about the state of the economy increased by 22 percentage points between the Spring 2023 and Fall 2024 surveys. Factors such as inflation, state regulations, and geopolitical risks are also adding to the growing pessimism in the industry.

Executives are particularly worried about how these challenges will impact key industry metrics like hiring, revenue growth, and capital investment. According to the report, CEOs expect these figures to dip in the coming months, further signaling the industry's impending slowdown. Despite the concerns about 2025, most gaming CEOs remain confident about the current state of the industry. The report highlights that 88% of survey respondents described the industry’s present condition as either “good” or “satisfactory,” suggesting that while growth may slow, the sector remains robust for now.

This dual perspective—optimism about the present and caution about the future—captures the gaming industry’s complex outlook as it heads into 2025. While companies are preparing for potential economic headwinds and regulatory challenges, they are also reassured by their financial stability and the resilience shown in recent years.

“After years of very strong consumer gaming spending growth, expectations around customer activity over the next three to six months have cooled considerably.”

Conclusion

The AGA’s Fall 2024 Gaming CEO Outlook paints a picture of an industry at a turning point. After years of booming growth, gaming may face a period of consolidation as economic uncertainty and regulatory challenges weigh on the minds of industry leaders. While CEOs remain upbeat about the current state of their businesses, their outlook for 2025 suggests a more cautious, measured approach to the future. How the industry navigates these challenges will be crucial in determining its long-term trajectory.