Thunder Dominate Finals Betting; Pacers Long Shots

The Oklahoma City Thunder stand as overwhelming favorites to capture the NBA championship this season, with odds so steep that many bettors, especially professionals, are looking elsewhere for wagering opportunities.

At major sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings, the Thunder are priced at around -700, meaning a bettor would have to risk $700 to win $100 on Oklahoma City’s title. In contrast, the Indiana Pacers are listed as significant underdogs, with odds of roughly +500 at BetMGM and +475 at DraftKings. This wide gap has led many bettors to shy away from traditional moneyline or spread bets on the finals.

How Could the Finals Go?

Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, explained the hesitation: “That number kind of scares you off even if you do like the Pacers. You’re like, ‘They’re +500 for a reason.’” The Thunder’s dominance this postseason supports the hefty odds—they have won seven playoff games by double digits, including four blowouts by 30 points or more.

Historically, Oklahoma City’s status as a heavy favorite is notable. According to sportsoddshistory.com, this is the most lopsided favorite since the 2018 Golden State Warriors, led by Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, who opened at an eye-popping -1075 before sweeping LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Thunder franchise’s sole championship came in 1979 when the team was based in Seattle as the SuperSonics. The franchise relocated to Oklahoma City in 2008, and a title has eluded the team since.

Despite the odds, CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall predicts a more competitive series, possibly extending to seven games. “I think they’re probably going to win the series, but I don’t see any value with that sort of price for them,” Marshall said. “There’s enough here that Indiana can make it interesting.”

For those unwilling to risk the high stakes of the Thunder’s moneyline, alternative bets focus on player props. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder’s star guard, is favored to win Finals MVP at -600 at DraftKings. His playoff averages of 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game underpin his odds.

Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ race and sports operations director, remarked, “We know he’s going to score 30 points at least every game. There’s one game where he might be off a little bit. They still have to win because they’re not going to give it to him if they lose the series.”

The Pacers’ dynamic duo, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, have also drawn attention. Siakam, who narrowly won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP over Haliburton, holds +1600 odds for Finals MVP, while Haliburton stands at +750. Avello noted that both players are viable candidates given their strong performances.

An intriguing factor in the series is the disparity in road performance. Indiana has excelled away from home, boasting a 6-2 record on the road this postseason, including wins at Cleveland and New York. Conversely, the Thunder have struggled outside Oklahoma City, failing to cover the spread in seven road playoff games. The series opens with Oklahoma City favored by 9.5 points in Game 1 on their home court.

 

That number kind of scares you off even if you do like the Pacers. You’re like, ‘They’re +500 for a reason.’

 

The Future

Marshall underscored the importance of home-court advantage: “It’s two different teams at home and on the road. It’s pretty stark.”

Despite the heavy betting volume on Oklahoma City, sportsbooks like BetMGM have maintained their pricing to ensure balanced action and profitable outcomes. Cipollini said, “I don’t think they ever got worse than maybe +400 to win it all. It still has been our best outcome basically from the beginning of the season.”

As the finals tip off Thursday, the consensus remains that the Thunder are the dominant force. Yet, the Pacers’ resilience and bettors’ search for value beyond the moneyline hint at a more nuanced contest ahead.