After reshaping parts of the US gambling landscape and igniting a series of regulatory disputes, prediction market platform Kalshi is exploring an expansion into Brazil, potentially as early as 2026.

Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of the New York-based company, confirmed the plans in an interview with Brazilian business daily *Valor*, saying the firm is studying how to enter the Brazilian market following a recent funding round that valued Kalshi at $11 billion. Lopes Lara, who is Brazilian, described the company as being “just getting started” and signaled that international growth is now a strategic priority.

“One of the first things we announced after the round was our plan to expand internationally,” she told *Valor*. “Brazil means a lot to me. I really want us to operate there. We’re still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026.”

 

A disruptive model under scrutiny

Founded as a federally regulated prediction market, Kalshi allows users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from economic indicators to major sporting competitions. The model has positioned the company as one of the most disruptive entrants in the US gambling-adjacent space in 2025.

Critics, however, argue that Kalshi’s sports-related contracts amount to betting products offered outside state-level gambling regulations. That criticism has translated into legal action across several US jurisdictions. In Connecticut, Kalshi is suing state regulators after receiving cease-and-desist orders alleging illegal sports betting. Similar disputes have emerged elsewhere, including with Native American tribes that operate regulated casinos.

In late November, a federal judge in Nevada dealt a setback to the company by dissolving a preliminary injunction that had temporarily blocked the state from pursuing enforcement action against Kalshi. The ruling reopened the door for regulators to challenge the platform’s operations under state gambling laws. Kalshi maintains that it operates legally as a commodities exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is therefore not subject to state betting regulations. The debate has intensified as major US betting operators DraftKings and FanDuel launched their own prediction market-style products earlier this month, both in partnership with CME Group.

 

An uncertain fit in Brazil

Brazil presents a markedly different regulatory environment. The country formally launched its regulated online betting market in 2025, with oversight shared between the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) and other financial authorities. According to Lopes Lara, there is currently no equivalent to Kalshi operating in the Brazilian market.

So far, neither the SPA nor the Brazilian Securities Commission has publicly outlined how prediction markets would be classified under local law. That regulatory silence leaves open questions about whether such products would be treated as financial instruments, gambling, or a hybrid of both.

Regulatory trends suggest potential headwinds. The SPA has signaled an intent to tighten financial safeguards across the betting sector, while the federal government is moving to increase taxes on licensed operators. A prediction market platform that could fall outside the existing betting framework may face resistance from both regulators and incumbent operators concerned about regulatory arbitrage.

“Brazil is moving in the direction of stricter oversight and higher fiscal contributions from betting companies,” said one industry analyst. “A product that sits in a gray area between finance and gambling is unlikely to receive a warm reception without clear legal grounding.”

 

We’re still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026.

 

Early-stage ambitions

Lopes Lara has emphasized that Kalshi’s plans for Brazil remain exploratory. No formal application has been filed, and no timeline beyond a tentative 2026 target has been confirmed. The company’s experience in the US suggests that any international rollout will be closely watched by regulators and industry stakeholders alike.

If Kalshi does pursue a Brazilian launch, it is likely to test the boundaries of the country’s newly established betting regime, much as it has in the United States. Whether Brazil becomes a gateway for broader international expansion—or another focal point for regulatory confrontation—will depend on how authorities ultimately choose to interpret prediction markets within their legal frameworks.