How US Macroeconomic Trends Shape the iGaming in 2025

The evolving economic landscape in the United States, characterized by shifting monetary policies and a new political alignment, is reshaping investment flows across industries. With the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance, private equity firms are eyeing opportunities in cash-rich sectors like iGaming. Corfai Capital founder Ben Robinson highlights how these macroeconomic signals—ranging from interest rate trends to regulatory waves—are poised to influence company valuations, mergers, and acquisitions within the online gambling industry.

This analysis delves into the implications of these macro-moves on the iGaming sector, examining the interplay of monetary policy, liquidity, inflation risks, and private equity dynamics.

THe USA Economy

The U.S. economy is at a pivotal moment. A 0.75% cumulative rate cut by the Federal Reserve reflects a move toward easing monetary policy, while a Republican-controlled government signals potential fiscal shifts. Meanwhile, the national debt—at $35.9 trillion—continues to grow, with inflation hovering near the Fed’s 2% target. These macroeconomic variables set the stage for both opportunities and risks in the investment landscape.

The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and declining M2 money supply suggest a complex liquidity environment. While quantitative tightening has contracted the M2 supply by $500 billion, potential rate reductions may reverse this trend, injecting fresh capital into the economy. For iGaming, this signals lower borrowing costs and increased attractiveness of leveraged acquisitions. Private equity firms, which often rely on favorable lending conditions, are likely to capitalize on this environment. As Treasury bond yields fall, driving investors toward equities, iGaming companies may see a surge in valuations, particularly in public markets.

Consider a private equity firm evaluating an acquisition in the iGaming space. In a low-rate, high-liquidity environment, the firm can secure financing at reduced costs while benefiting from higher asset valuations. If inflation pressures remain contained, this dynamic fosters a bullish outlook for investments in scale-ups and M&A activity. The growing national debt and its servicing costs present a longer-term risk. Should inflation rise beyond the Fed’s comfort zone, a return to hawkish monetary policies could stifle growth in sectors like iGaming, which rely heavily on accessible capital.

Meanwhile, the role of stablecoin issuers as significant holders of U.S. debt highlights the expanding intersection of cryptocurrency and mainstream finance. As crypto adoption grows, it may further influence capital flows within unregulated gaming markets.

The regulatory environment remains a key driver of market dynamics. In the U.S., post-PASPA legalization has fueled investment, while countries like Brazil are liberalizing their gaming industries. Conversely, over-regulated European markets have driven operators toward alternative models like sweepstakes and crypto gaming.

Private equity-backed deals, such as Apollo’s recent acquisitions, underscore the sector’s maturity and appeal. These investments often target high-growth areas, leveraging regulatory shifts to maximize returns.

Lower rates and increased liquidity signal a ‘wall of money' flowing into high-growth sectors like iGaming, driving valuations and fueling M&A activity.

Conclusions

Macroeconomic signals suggest a favorable climate for the iGaming sector, with lower rates and increased liquidity driving investment interest. However, risks persist, particularly around inflation and potential policy reversals. For investors, the ability to navigate these dynamics—balancing regulatory challenges, market liquidity, and inflation risks—will be critical.

The current trajectory points to a promising short- to medium-term outlook for iGaming. If macroeconomic stability persists, 2025 could emerge as a banner year for returns in this evolving and resilient industry.