Mixed Results for U.S. Casinos in Q3 2024

The American Gaming Association's (AGA) third-quarter report on U.S. commercial gaming presents a mixed picture for retail casinos. While overall revenue saw a slight decline compared to Q3 2023, certain states reported substantial gains, driven by new casinos, expansions, and returning operations. The sector's uneven performance underscores the growing divide between markets experiencing growth and those facing challenges in a competitive landscape.

Gains From New Openings and Expansions

Nebraska, for example, saw a dramatic 74.7% increase in revenue, second only to Oregon’s growth. The opening of Omaha's WarHorse Casino in August, coupled with expansions at WarHorse Lincoln, helped propel this surge. As the state continues to build on its newfound casino presence, Nebraska’s fourth-quarter results are expected to show even stronger growth. Similarly, Illinois benefited from the arrival of Bally’s Chicago Casino in late 2023, which contributed to a 6% revenue boost in Q3. Illinois’ continued expansion, including the recent opening of Wind Creek Casino Southland in November, indicates that its upward trajectory is set to continue.

Virginia also posted strong gains, with a 9% revenue increase year-over-year. Much of this can be attributed to Rivers Casino Portsmouth, which reported a remarkable 23.7% increase in revenue in August alone. As the state welcomes new casinos in Norfolk and Petersburg, Virginia's casino industry is poised for further growth. South Dakota's nearly 4% increase was similarly fueled by the August 2023 opening of Rocksino by Hard Rock Deadwood, marking another win for the state’s expanding casino footprint.

States Bouncing Back After Pandemic Restrictions

Delaware’s nearly 8% growth was driven by the return to 24/7 operations at Bally’s Dover Casino Resort and Delaware Park Casino earlier this year, as they recovered from pandemic-related restrictions. The expansion of Delaware Park’s gaming space in 2025 is likely to continue this upward momentum.

Some states with established casino industries, such as New York and Michigan, also showed modest growth. In New York, the state’s upstate casinos saw a 3% increase in revenue, with their best quarter in two years. Michigan’s Detroit casinos, including MGM Grand Detroit and MotorCity Casino, reported a collective growth of just over 2%, driven by strong performances at several properties. While the growth in these markets wasn’t explosive, it highlights the resilience of well-established casino hubs.

On the other side of the ledger, 13 states reported revenue declines, with New Mexico seeing the largest drop at nearly 6%. Other states such as West Virginia, Rhode Island, and Mississippi also saw contractions in their casino revenues. This decline reflects the pressures some markets are facing, particularly as competition from neighboring states and new developments creates a more fragmented landscape. Iowa, for example, experienced a drop in revenue, largely due to new casinos opening in Nebraska, which drew customers away from Iowa’s retail gaming sector.

Emerging markets like Nebraska and Illinois are driving growth, while established casino hubs face revenue challenges amid market saturation and competition.

Regional Divide and the Future Outlook

The third-quarter results underscore the increasing regional divide within the U.S. casino market. States like Nebraska, Virginia, and Illinois are benefitting from new casino openings and expansions, while established markets in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania are facing stagnation or decline. The rise of online gaming and the potential for more competition in neighboring states will likely continue to influence the success of retail casinos moving forward.

In the coming months, as some of these new casinos mature and more states embark on expansion efforts, the national landscape could shift further. However, the mixed performance in Q3 highlights that the U.S. commercial casino sector is no longer a homogenous market but one defined by regional trends and competition.