Missouri Sports Betting Initiative Faces Legal Threat

A recent lawsuit filed in Cole County Circuit Court could potentially derail Missouri's sports betting initiative from appearing on the November 5 ballot. The legal action, targeting the state’s top election official, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, challenges the validity of the signature certification process that allowed the measure to proceed.

 

Background and Legal Challenge

The lawsuit was filed just ahead of the 10-day deadline for challenging the certification, following Ashcroft’s August 13 announcement that the initiative had met the necessary requirements. Plaintiffs Jacqueline Wood and Blake Lawrence, both with backgrounds in political consulting and government affairs, allege that Ashcroft’s certification was flawed in multiple ways, potentially violating the rights of Missouri voters.

At the heart of the lawsuit is Missouri’s unique process for qualifying initiatives for the ballot, which requires signatures from 8% of voters from the last gubernatorial election in six out of eight congressional districts. While Ashcroft’s office confirmed that the sports betting initiative met the signature threshold in six districts, the lawsuit contests the methods used in this determination.

Specifically, the plaintiffs argue that:

1. The signature requirements should have been equal across districts based on the total number of voters in the 2020 election, rather than 8% of each district’s voter total.
2. The use of the previous congressional district boundaries from the 2020 election, rather than the new boundaries following redistricting, was improper and could have led to insufficient valid signatures in key districts.
3. In the closest districts, Districts 1 and 5, local election authorities may have improperly counted signatures, further casting doubt on the validity of the certification.

Judge Cottom Walker has been assigned to the case. If the court finds merit in any of these claims, it could reverse Ashcroft’s certification, preventing the initiative from appearing on the ballot.

 

Implications for the Sports Betting Initiative

The stakes are high for the proponents of the sports betting initiative, which has faced years of legislative roadblocks. Backed primarily by the St. Louis Cardinals and major online gaming operators like FanDuel and DraftKings, the initiative seeks to legalize sports betting in Missouri. It is set to appear as Amendment 2 on the ballot if the lawsuit does not succeed.

The lawsuit may also signal the beginning of a broader opposition campaign. While early polling from March and April suggested strong support for the initiative, with over 60% of voters in favor, more recent polling conducted in June by Emerson College/Nexstar Media showed a much closer race, with 38.3% in support, 35.4% opposed, and 26.3% undecided.

The close margins in polling suggest that the initiative could be vulnerable to a well-funded negative campaign, similar to what occurred in California in 2022. There, a sports betting initiative initially showed strong support but was ultimately defeated after a costly opposition campaign, receiving just 17% of the vote.

 

The Future

The lawsuit’s outcome could have significant ramifications for the future of sports betting in Missouri. If the court sides with the plaintiffs, the initiative may be removed from the ballot, potentially halting the momentum behind sports betting legalization in the state. This could also save opponents the considerable expense of mounting a full-scale negative campaign.

Conversely, if the court upholds Ashcroft’s certification, the initiative will proceed to the November ballot, where it will face a contentious and closely watched vote.

With the clock ticking towards the election, all eyes are on the Cole County Circuit Court as the fate of Missouri’s sports betting initiative hangs in the balance.