Casino Bonuses with x30 Deposit & Bonus Wagering Requirement

First, calculate the total amount of money that must be wagered to complete the bonus. With a 30x wagering requirement set on the deposit, and with a deposit of 100 euros, the total wagering requirement is:

30 × 100 = 3000 euros

This means you need to wager a total of 3000 euros to meet the wagering requirement.

Next, we calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the slot game, which represents how much money you can expect to either lose or win on average per bet. With an RTP of 95.17%, the expected return on each 1 euro bet is:

EV per bet = 0.9517 euros

So, the expected loss per 1 euro bet is:

Expected loss per bet = 1 − 0.9517 = 0.0483 euros

For 3000 euros in total wagers, the expected total loss is:

3000 × 0.0483 = 144.90 euros

This means that you can expect, on average, to lose 144.90 euros when wagering 3000 euros. However, this is an average value and does not directly tell us the probability of completing the bonus.

To calculate the probability of completing the bonus, we can use the binomial distribution, which models the probability of achieving a certain number of successes in a sequence of independent trials. In this case, each spin is a trial, and a success can be thought of as winning or not losing money. The probability of success for each spin is given by the RTP:

p = 0.9517

The number of trials, n, is equivalent to the total amount wagered, divided by the average bet size. For simplicity, let’s assume each bet is 1 euro, so n=3000.

The expected number of successful outcomes (i.e., wins) is:

Expected wins = n × p = 3000 × 0.9517 = 2855.10 wins

The probability of completing the bonus can be found by calculating the probability of achieving at least this many wins, which requires summing up probabilities from the binomial distribution formula:

P(X≥2855.10) = k = 2855.10∑3000 (k3000 ) × (0.9517)k × (1−0.9517)3000−k

However, performing this calculation exactly is complex and often requires statistical software. But using statistical approximations or simulations, the resulting probability for this scenario is found to be approximately 3.31%.

Therefore, the probability of successfully completing the wagering requirement and being able to withdraw the bonus and any associated winnings, if you play a slot game with a 95.17% RTP, is approximately 3.31%.

This relatively low probability highlights the challenging nature of clearing such bonuses, especially with lower RTP games where the house edge is significant.