The year 2026 is shaping up as a watershed period for prediction markets in the United States, with early trading activity reaching record highs. From the Super Bowl to the Grammys, and spanning politics, cryptocurrency, and corporate showdowns, traders are navigating a highly volatile landscape just two months into the new year.

Traders continue to speculate on the Federal Reserve chair race, with Judy Shelton gaining momentum against President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh. According to Kalshi markets, Shelton’s probability has increased from 4% to 5% over the past week. Meanwhile, unverified rumors linking Warsh to the Epstein files have spurred hedging activity, contributing to over $195 million in trading volume on the outcome. While the claims remain unconfirmed, the market illustrates how political uncertainty continues to drive early 2026’s betting frenzy.

March Madness Markets Heat Up

With the NFL season concluded, attention has shifted to college basketball. The NCAA men’s championship market on Kalshi has exceeded $32 million in volume. Michigan leads with a 22% probability, followed by Duke at 19% and Arizona at 14%. While Michigan maintains a stable lead, Duke’s recent gains indicate a fluid and highly reactive market, reflecting both on-court performance and trader sentiment.

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp retreat after peaking at $120,000 in October 2025, dropping to $68,000 as of February 2026. The once-bustling “When Will Bitcoin Hit $150k?” market has stagnated, with probability estimates plummeting from 62% to 5%. This dramatic shift underscores heightened trader caution in the face of persistent crypto volatility, suggesting a temporary lull in speculative bullish positions.

Tech Rumors Spark Early iPhone 18 Activity

Despite the iPhone 18 being months away, traders have already placed bets totaling $127,000 on potential release dates. Early speculation includes a possible split-launch strategy, with Pro models arriving in late 2026 and base models delayed until 2027. The uncertainty has transformed what was historically a predictable September launch into a volatile market for prediction enthusiasts.

The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery between Netflix and Paramount has attracted attention not only from traders but also in political corridors. Paramount CEO David Ellison’s presence at the State of the Union and Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos’ upcoming White House meeting highlight the high-stakes maneuvering. Markets currently favor Paramount at 56%, but with both sides effectively at a 50/50 split in trader perception, Washington developments may significantly shift probabilities in the coming weeks.

Across political, tech, sports, and crypto markets, volatility remains the dominant theme. High-volume events, rumor-driven swings, and unanticipated developments illustrate that traders are operating in a fast-moving, reactive environment.

Volatility remains the only constant in 2026, as politics, sports, and tech continue to drive record-breaking prediction market activity.

iGaming Q2 2026 Prediction

Looking ahead, the U.S. iGaming sector is positioned for strong growth in Q2 2026. The surge in prediction market activity suggests sustained consumer appetite for interactive and speculative platforms, particularly around high-profile events such as March Madness, corporate battles, and major tech product releases. We expect total trading volume on regulated U.S. iGaming and prediction market platforms to increase by 15–20% quarter-over-quarter, driven by expanding mobile access, enhanced event coverage, and continued integration of alternative asset markets like cryptocurrency.

Early 2026 demonstrates that prediction markets are maturing into a major segment of U.S. iGaming, blending politics, tech, sports, and crypto speculation. Traders and operators alike should prepare for a volatile Q2, with opportunities for rapid gains—and sudden reversals—across multiple sectors.