Super Bowl LX did not produce a dramatic finish on the field, but it delivered a landmark moment for prediction markets. Contracts tied to the game generated a combined $1.63 billion in trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, marking the largest single-day total in the sector’s history. The figure spans markets covering the game’s outcome, player props, halftime show details, advertising, celebrity appearances and even announcer commentary.

While the total approaches the estimated $1.71 billion legal sportsbook handle for the game, the metrics are not directly comparable. Prediction market volume reflects the total value of all shares traded, not the initial capital risked by participants. Even so, the scale underscores the rapid growth of event-based trading as a parallel ecosystem to traditional sports betting.

• Record Trading Volume: Super Bowl LX generated $1.63 billion in prediction market trading across Kalshi and Polymarket, the largest single-day total in the sector’s history.

• Kalshi’s Explosive Growth: Kalshi saw a nearly 3,000% surge in Super Bowl trading, rising from $27.5 million last year to $833.2 million this year, fueled by expanded market offerings.

• Shift to Event-Based Contracts: Non-futures, short-term contracts, including halftime show and entertainment markets, surged to $924 million, highlighting a pivot from season-long wagers to specialized event markets.

Kalshi’s 3,000% Surge Reshapes Competitive Landscape

The sharpest shift came from Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange. Super Bowl trading on the platform rose from $27.5 million last year to $833.2 million this year—an increase of nearly 3,000%. The growth followed a broad expansion in available contracts. A year ago, Kalshi offered only a handful of markets tied to the championship. This year, it listed 68 separate contracts. Game-outcome markets alone generated more than $425 million in trading volume, while “announcer-mention” markets expanded nearly twentyfold.

Kalshi reported nearly 2 million daily active users on Super Bowl Sunday, up 1,000% year-on-year. Distribution partnerships with Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini allowed users to route trades through its regulated infrastructure, widening retail access. Polymarket, which previously dominated Super Bowl-related trading, saw total volume decline from $1.17 billion to $795.3 million. The drop stemmed almost entirely from lower participation in season-long championship futures.

However, non-futures markets on the platform grew more than fourfold, rising from $17.5 million to more than $91 million. The shift suggests traders are moving toward short-term, event-driven contracts rather than tying up capital in months-long wagers. Across both platforms, non-futures Super Bowl trading volume climbed from $45 million last year to $924 million this year. The change reflects a structural shift in market design—from a single, winner-take-all championship pool to a diversified network of specialized contracts tied to discrete moments and outcomes.

Entertainment Contracts Drive Engagement

Approximately one-third of Kalshi’s Super Bowl volume—$279 million—came from non-game markets. The most active entertainment contract centered on the first song performed during the Bad Bunny halftime show, generating $113.5 million in trades.

Other high-volume categories included Super Bowl commercials, halftime guest appearances, player awards such as MVP, and specific announcer phrases. These contracts broadened participation beyond traditional sports bettors and into pop culture and media speculation. The surge in activity exposed operational strains. Kalshi experienced deposit delays during peak demand, with some users reporting that funds withdrawn from bank accounts were not credited before kickoff.

Disputes also emerged over contract resolution, particularly in halftime performance markets where ambiguous wording led to contested settlements. In addition, questions surfaced about potential information asymmetries in entertainment contracts, where production staff or insiders may have had prior knowledge of outcomes. These challenges highlighted the need for clearer contract design, stronger settlement governance and infrastructure capable of handling concentrated, high-volume trading events.

Super Bowl LX has shown that prediction markets have moved beyond niche experiments—billion-dollar event trading is now a mainstream part of the financial and entertainment landscape.

A Billion-Dollar Category Emerges

Super Bowl LX marked a turning point for prediction markets. Once viewed as a niche financial experiment, the sector now supports billion-dollar event trading with engagement levels approaching traditional sportsbooks. Although structural differences remain between prediction markets and regulated betting operators, the scale of activity suggests that large-scale, event-driven trading is becoming a standard feature of major cultural moments. The next phase of growth will depend on whether platforms can strengthen infrastructure, clarify governance and manage risk at volumes that now rival the largest days in legal sports betting.