What Super Bowl LX Reveals About U.S. Sports Betting

What Super Bowl LX Reveals About U.S. Sports Betting

Sports betting around Super Bowl LX is expected to reach another historic high, yet new forecasts suggest the event may also reflect a turning point for the U.S. wagering market. The championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots is still projected to generate between $1.5 billion and $1.75 billion in legal bets nationwide. However, analysts increasingly view those figures as evidence of a market that has begun to stabilise rather than accelerate.

For much of the past decade, Super Bowl betting totals have been driven upward by a steady stream of new states entering the legal market. That expansion phase is now largely complete. With only one additional state launching legal sports betting since the previous Super Bowl, the familiar pattern of sharp year-on-year growth is giving way to more modest changes shaped by competition, consumer behaviour, and tighter operator strategies.

Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender estimates that sportsbooks will process roughly $1.5 billion in wagers for Super Bowl LX, a slight decline compared with last year. He frames this not as a sign of fading interest in the NFL’s biggest event, but as the result of structural limits that are becoming harder to ignore. The national betting map has filled out, leaving fewer untapped markets to lift overall volume.

Missouri’s recent launch is unlikely to shift the national picture in a meaningful way. Its late arrival in the season limits customer acquisition opportunities, and the absence of the Kansas City Chiefs from the playoffs further reduces local momentum. As a result, most operators are entering Super Bowl week focused less on expansion and more on managing existing demand.

Promotional activity is expected to reflect that change in priorities. After several years of aggressive incentives tied to major sporting events, sportsbooks are increasingly cautious about spending. Bender expects reduced promotional intensity this year, a move that may support profitability but also dampen betting volumes at the margins. This adjustment follows an unusually strong Super Bowl for operators last year, when hold rates reached levels that analysts consider difficult to repeat.

Citizens projects a notable decline in Super Bowl-related revenue even if betting volume remains near record levels. Last year’s results benefited from outcomes that favoured sportsbooks, pushing hold close to 17 percent. A more typical performance this year could lead to a sharp drop in operator revenue despite headline handle figures that still appear strong.

Indicators from earlier in the postseason support the view of a cooling growth curve. App download data during the AFC and NFC Championship Games showed little movement compared with the same period a year earlier. While poor weather in parts of the country may have kept betting activity steady, the lack of growth points to a more mature customer base that is already well served by existing platforms.

LSR’s national forecast offers a slightly higher handle projection of $1.71 billion, which would extend a multi-year streak of record-setting Super Bowls. Even so, LSR characterises the current environment as a transitional phase rather than a continuation of past trends. The Super Bowl typically accounts for around one percent of annual betting volume, and its growth increasingly mirrors broader industry dynamics rather than standing apart from them.

The contrast with earlier years is clear. In 2019, legal Super Bowl betting was confined to eight states and generated roughly $200 million in wagers. That figure more than doubled by 2021 and surpassed $1 billion by 2023 as new markets came online. Last year’s total approached $1.5 billion across close to 40 states and territories. With that expansion largely complete, future increases are expected to be incremental rather than dramatic.

State-level projections illustrate this shift. New York is forecast to lead Super Bowl LX betting with an estimated $171 million in handle, according to LSR modelling. Despite being the country’s largest sports betting market overall, New York has not previously topped Super Bowl rankings. New Jersey, which led last year, is projected to slip slightly to second place at $161 million, reflecting a narrower gap between the largest markets.

California remains a central factor despite its continued prohibition on legal sports betting. As the host state, it would normally provide a substantial lift to national betting totals, as seen in recent host years elsewhere. Its absence removes that effect, highlighting the uneven reach of regulation across the country. Analysts estimate that a regulated California market could support hundreds of millions of dollars in Super Bowl wagering on its own.

Nevada’s position continues to evolve as well. Once the focal point of Super Bowl betting, the state is expected to generate around $144 million in wagers. Higher travel costs, softer tourism trends, and the convenience of betting closer to home have gradually reduced Nevada’s share as wagering has spread nationwide.

Beyond geography, new forms of competition are shaping the market. Prediction platforms, operating under federal oversight, now offer Super Bowl-related contracts in states without legal sports betting. Analysts note that these platforms are attracting meaningful interest, introducing uncertainty around how much activity they divert from traditional sportsbooks. While their volumes are not included in official betting totals, their presence adds pressure to an already crowded landscape.

Revenue expectations remain cautious. Nationwide Super Bowl betting revenue is projected to exceed $100 million, assuming average hold rates. Betting behaviour continues to tilt toward parlays and long-term wagers placed earlier in the season, reinforcing trends that favour higher-margin products.