Spain Prepares AI-Based Gambling Oversight

Spain Prepares AI-Based Gambling Oversight

Spain’s gambling regulator, the Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ), is preparing to expand its use of artificial intelligence in monitoring online betting and casino activity. The authority has confirmed that more than 60 behavioural and financial indicators will be integrated into a surveillance system designed to track gambling patterns and highlight early signs of risk.

The project is a direct outcome of the 2023 Royal Decree on Safer Gambling Environments, which instructed the regulator to develop new tools to reduce gambling-related harm. By applying machine learning, the system aims to detect concerning activity in real time and alert operators when patterns suggest that individuals may be heading toward problematic behaviour.

The technical foundation of the initiative is built on the algorithm XGBoost, a model capable of analysing large volumes of data to identify trends. Variables to be assessed include the number and duration of gambling sessions, deposit and withdrawal behaviour, betting activity following wins or losses, and frequency of cash-outs. Consecutive days of play will also be measured, along with a specific focus on live betting. The regulator views in-play markets as carrying particular risks because of the speed at which decisions must be made and the potential for impulsive wagers.

This approach is intended to shift oversight from retrospective analysis to real-time monitoring. Rather than focusing solely on outcomes such as financial loss, the DGOJ’s system looks for patterns of behaviour that might predict harm before it escalates. In practice, this could mean that operators are expected to intervene earlier, with measures ranging from issuing warnings to temporarily restricting accounts.

Before the model is finalized, however, the regulator has opened a consultation process that will remain active until September 25. Operators, technology providers, researchers, and members of the public have been invited to provide feedback. The DGOJ has stated that this input will help refine both the technical and legal framework of the system, ensuring that questions of proportionality, data use, and privacy are addressed alongside the goal of harm prevention.

Despite its ambitious scope, the project has attracted scrutiny. Its coverage will be limited to online sports betting, poker, and casino games, while Spain’s most popular gambling products, lotteries run by SELAE and ONCE, remain outside its scope. This exclusion has raised debate about whether the system can be considered comprehensive or whether its focus is too narrow to capture the full range of gambling activity in the country.

There are also uncertainties surrounding implementation. The Royal Decree allows a two-year development window. Yet, no timeline has been announced for pilot testing, nor has the regulator clarified how risk scores will be harmonized across different platforms. Without a consistent standard, there is a risk that the same activity might be judged differently depending on the operator, which could undermine the system’s credibility.

When first presented, government officials described the model as a potential benchmark for Europe. The project reflects a wider trend among European regulators to incorporate advanced analytics into safer gambling strategies, but Spain’s initiative is notable for the scale of its ambition. If successful, it could provide other jurisdictions with a blueprint for integrating artificial intelligence into national oversight frameworks. Yet success will depend on practical details: how the indicators are calibrated, how operators respond to alerts, and how the balance is struck between consumer protection and data rights.

The choice to pursue such an AI-driven approach also illustrates a broader tension between innovation and regulation. Machine learning algorithms are effective at detecting hidden patterns but often operate as “black boxes,” raising questions about transparency and accountability. By inviting public consultation, the DGOJ appears aware of these concerns and is seeking to balance technological capability with legal safeguards.

The exclusion of lotteries from the model reflects this same balancing act. Regulators often justify such decisions on the basis that lottery products are slower-paced and therefore carry lower immediate risk. Critics argue, however, that excluding the most widely played form of gambling in Spain weakens the system’s overall effectiveness. The debate highlights the difficulty of designing a regulation that is both practical and comprehensive in a diverse market.

Spain’s project sits at the intersection of technology, regulation, and social policy. It reflects an effort to modernize oversight by moving beyond reactive tools and toward predictive intervention. Whether it becomes a model for others or remains a national experiment will depend on how effectively it addresses the issues of scope, consistency, and transparency during its development.