Dutch Legal Gambling Industry Faces Crisis

3The Netherlands' regulated online gambling industry is facing increasing pressure as a combination of strict regulatory measures and growing black market activity threaten its commercial viability. Legal experts and market analysts warn that unless policymakers reconsider their approach, the sector may become unsustainable for licensed operators.

Since the Dutch online gambling market officially opened in October 2021 under the Remote Gaming Act, the government has steadily tightened its grip on the sector. Measures include bans on untargeted advertising, sponsorship restrictions, player deposit limits, and affordability checks. Now, with a revised gambling bill expected by the end of 2025, further restrictions — such as a higher age limit for online slots — are likely.

While these actions aim to protect consumers, especially younger players, operators argue they have had the unintended consequence of driving users toward unlicensed gambling platforms that offer fewer restrictions and greater anonymity.

“If and when the black market really starts to take over, I think the government may then start to look at relaxing certain laws,” said Justin Franssen, co-founder of law firm Franssen Tolboom. “The problem with politicians though is always the same. They start rescue action when the victim has already drowned.”

 

Channelisation Rate Masks Black Market Reality

The Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the Dutch gambling regulator, reports a 93% channelisation rate — the proportion of players using legal platforms. However, data from H2 Gambling Capital paints a more concerning picture. It estimates that half of all bets in the Netherlands are placed with illegal operators, suggesting that the black market commands significant influence despite regulatory efforts.

By 2030, H2 forecasts the legal market's share could shrink to just 45%, equating to €1.21 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) out of a total €2.7 billion.

This trend has already pushed several operators to exit the Dutch market. In 2024, LiveScore Bet and Flutter-owned Tombola withdrew, citing unsustainable operating conditions. LiveScore described the Dutch market as “no longer commercially viable.”

Marketing Crackdown Spurs Backlash

Many analysts trace the government’s aggressive regulatory stance to the advertising surge that followed market liberalisation. When the market opened with 10 licensed operators — now expanded to 27 — advertising became pervasive, triggering public and political backlash. “The bombardment of advertising led to public opinion turning against operators,” said Franssen. “This is all the result of an industry which doesn’t learn from mistakes made in other jurisdictions.”

Ironically, two of the most active advertisers at the time were Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij — both state-owned. Legal experts argue the government could have used its influence over these brands to set a more restrained example, possibly avoiding the wave of restrictions that followed.

“They should have been the guiding lights [for other operators] but they weren’t,” Franssen noted. “The government then created their own political backlash.”

 

Black Market Expansion Raises Alarm

The growing appeal of illegal platforms is now a top concern for the KSA. Coordinator Peter Rampertaap warned that many Dutch consumers — especially young players — struggle to distinguish between licensed and unlicensed sites. The lack of consumer awareness, coupled with lower operational costs for illegal operators, makes the black market a competitive threat.

At the same time, some regulators point to the benefits of new measures. The KSA reported a 31% drop in average monthly losses following the introduction of deposit limits. Still, online searches for the top 100 illegal gambling websites have risen, indicating players are actively seeking less-regulated alternatives.

The future of Dutch gambling policy may depend heavily on the outcome of the country’s upcoming election on 29 October. The collapse of the ruling coalition last month, triggered by the withdrawal of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom, has created a vacuum in leadership and policymaking.

Teun Struycken, the current State Secretary for Legal Protection and an outspoken critic of online gambling, is spearheading the new legislative update. His party, the New Social Contract Party, has previously proposed banning online gambling entirely.

 

The political situation certainly makes a difference,” said Franssen. “After the election, we may see a shift in tone — but that depends on who ends up in charge.

An Industry at a Crossroads

Industry stakeholders say the key to turning the situation around lies in regulatory balance. Speaking at iGB Live in July, Mike de Graaff of compliance firm BetComply urged policymakers to foster an environment that allows innovation and healthy competition without sacrificing player safety.

“We need to create regulated markets that enable licensed operators to be creative and innovative,” de Graaff said. “By having super restrictive markets, it makes it very difficult for operators to bring any innovation to the market.”

As the Dutch gambling market moves toward another wave of regulation, operators and experts alike warn that without a course correction, the system risks undermining the very consumer protections it set out to uphold.